State of Origin Value Bets
We compare State of Origin odds from all major bookmakers every hour. Our algorithm removes the bookmaker margin and identifies markets where the best available price exceeds the true no-vig probability.
EV is calculated as: EV = (odds x no_vig_probability) - 1. Any result above 0% is a value bet. We show only bets with EV between 1% and 20%.
Compare all State of Origin odds →State of Origin value bets appear when bookmaker odds offer higher probability than the true no-vig market price. Check back after the next odds update.
← View all value betsWhat Are State of Origin Value Bets?
A value bet is a wager where the bookmaker's offered odds imply a lower probability than the true likelihood of that outcome. EVBets monitors State of Origin markets from 20+ bookmakers. When any bookmaker prices an outcome higher than the no-vig consensus, that represents positive expected value (EV).
Formula: EV = (odds × true_probability) - 1
Any result above 0% is a positive EV bet.
How State of Origin Value Bets Are Calculated
We fetch state of origin odds from all major bookmakers every hour. For each market, we calculate the consensus no-vig probability by averaging sharp bookmaker (Pinnacle) prices and removing the margin. When a bookmaker offers odds exceeding this fair price, the bet has positive expected value.
Formula: EV = (odds × no_vig_probability) - 1
A bet is a value bet when EV > 0%.
