Expected Value (EV)

Expected value is the average outcome of a bet if placed infinitely many times. A positive EV (+EV) bet is profitable in the long run; a negative EV (−EV) bet loses money over time, regardless of short-term results.

EV Formula

EV = (Win Probability × Profit) − (Loss Probability × Stake)

Example: You bet €100 at odds of 2.50. You estimate true win probability at 45%.

EV = (0.45 × €150) − (0.55 × €100) = €67.50 − €55.00 = +€12.50

Why EV Matters More Than Results

A single bet can win or lose due to variance. Over hundreds of bets, your actual results converge toward the sum of each bet's EV. This is why professional bettors focus on making +EV decisions — the results take care of themselves with sufficient volume.

EV and Bookmaker Odds

Bookmakers build negative EV into every market via the vig. The only way to find +EV is to have a better probability estimate than the bookmaker — which EVBets achieves by comparing soft book odds to sharp book consensus.

Frequently Asked Questions