No-Vig Calculator — Devig Odds & Find Fair Probability
Remove the bookmaker margin (vig/juice) from any market. Enter the odds for each outcome — get the true fair probability and no-vig odds in one click. Works for 2-way (yes/no, over/under) and 3-way (home/draw/away) markets.
| Outcome | Raw Odds | Implied % | Fair % | Fair Odds |
|---|
What is no-vig (devig) in betting?
Every bookmaker builds a profit margin into their odds — called vig, juice, or overround. If you add up the implied probabilities of all outcomes in a market, the sum is greater than 100%. The excess is the bookmaker's edge.
No-vig (devigging) removes this margin proportionally to reveal the market's true estimate of each outcome's probability. These fair probabilities are what sharp bettors use as their baseline.
The formula:
The result for each outcome adds up to exactly 100%.
Worked example: EPL match 3-way market
Bookmaker offers Manchester City vs Liverpool:
- Man City win:
2.05 - Draw:
3.40 - Liverpool win:
3.80
Step 1 — implied probabilities:
- City:
1 / 2.05 = 48.78% - Draw:
1 / 3.40 = 29.41% - Liverpool:
1 / 3.80 = 26.32% - Sum:
104.51%→ bookmaker margin = 4.51%
Step 2 — divide each by sum to get fair probability:
- City fair:
48.78 / 104.51 = 46.68%→ fair odds2.14 - Draw fair:
29.41 / 104.51 = 28.14%→ fair odds3.55 - Liverpool fair:
26.32 / 104.51 = 25.18%→ fair odds3.97
Now compare: if another bookmaker offers Liverpool at 4.20, that's 4.20 × 0.2518 − 1 = +5.76% EV — a value bet. Try it in the EV calculator.
Typical bookmaker margins by market
| Market | Recreational books | Sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair) |
|---|---|---|
| Soccer 3-way (top leagues) | 5-7% | 2-3% |
| Soccer 3-way (lower leagues) | 7-12% | 4-6% |
| NFL spread / total | 4-5% | 2-3% |
| NBA ML / total | 4-6% | 2-3% |
| Tennis ML | 3-5% | 2-3% |
| UFC ML | 5-8% | 3-4% |
| Player props | 6-12% | 4-7% |
| Live in-play | 6-10% | 3-5% |
Rule of thumb: the lower the margin, the more accurate the no-vig probability. Always devig from the sharpest available book.
No-vig methods: proportional vs Shin vs power
This calculator uses the proportional (multiplicative) method — the most common and easiest to compute. There are two more advanced methods:
Proportional method (this calculator)
Divide each implied probability by the sum. Assumes margin is applied equally to all outcomes. Works well for 2-way and balanced 3-way markets.
Shin's method
Accounts for the bookmaker's incentive to skew margin toward favorites (insider trading risk). Slightly more accurate for heavy favorites — typically gives 1-2% lower probability to favorites and higher to underdogs vs proportional.
Power method
Raises each odds to a power k where the resulting probabilities sum to 1. Mathematically elegant but rarely changes results meaningfully for liquid markets.
For 99% of bettors, the proportional method (used here) is sufficient. Sharp syndicates use Shin's for heavy-favorite props.
When does no-vig fail?
- Illiquid markets. Low-volume markets (third-tier soccer, player props, niche sports) can have prices that don't reflect actual sharp money. No-vig from these books can be off by 5-10%.
- News breaks. Injury or lineup news leaks unevenly. Smart bookmakers update fast; recreational books lag. No-vig from a stale book is wrong until they catch up.
- Live odds. Live markets adjust every few seconds. By the time you devig, the odds may have moved.
- Asymmetric vig. Some bookmakers put extra margin on the favorite (longshot bias correction). The proportional method overestimates favorite probability in these cases — use Shin's instead.
Frequently asked questions
Is no-vig probability the same as true probability?
Not exactly, but it's the best public estimate. From sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange), no-vig is typically within ±1% of true probability for liquid markets. From recreational books it can drift further from truth.
Which bookmaker should I devig from?
Always the sharpest one. Best: Pinnacle, Betfair Exchange, Smarkets. Decent: Circa Sports, BetCRIS. Avoid devigging from soft books (DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet365) — their lines are skewed by recreational money.
Can I use no-vig odds to compare bookmakers?
Yes — that's the core of value betting. Devig the sharp book to get fair probability, then check soft books for outliers offering higher odds than fair. EVBets does this automatically across 94 bookmakers.
Why does the margin matter?
Margin is the bookmaker's expected profit on your bet. A 5% margin means you need to be 5%+ better than the market just to break even. Sharp books with 2-3% margin are easier to beat than recreational books with 7-10%.
What's the difference between vig, juice, margin, and overround?
All the same thing. "Vig" and "juice" are US slang. "Margin" is the European term. "Overround" is the technical/mathematical term (sum of implied probabilities − 100%). All refer to the bookmaker's built-in profit edge.
Next steps
- Use fair probabilities in the EV Calculator to find positive EV bets
- Size your stakes with the Kelly Criterion Calculator
- Browse live +EV opportunities: EVBets value bets (auto-devigged across 94 bookmakers)
- Convert American/fractional to decimal: Odds Converter
- Learn the full method: No-vig glossary entry