Hedging a Bet

Hedging is placing a secondary bet on the opposing outcome of an open position to lock in profit (or reduce loss) before the event resolves.

Common Hedging Scenarios

Futures cash-out: Your team makes the championship game; you hedge the final to guarantee profit. Parlay last leg: Hedge the final leg of a multi-bet to bank some profit instead of going for full payout. Live in-play: Hedge a pre-match bet when the market moves favorably.

Hedging Math

To lock equal profit on both sides:

Hedge stake = (Original stake × Original odds) / Hedge odds

If your $100 bet on Team A at 5.00 is winning ($500 potential return), and Team B is now 1.50, hedge stake = (100 × 5.00) / 1.50 = $333.33. Guaranteed return: ~$500 on either side, minus combined stake of $433.

Should You Hedge?

Hedging is −EV in expectation for a value bettor — you're paying vig twice. But for bankroll preservation or non-replicable bets (e.g., a +5000 futures with one game left), the variance reduction is worth more than the EV cost.

Frequently Asked Questions