Mexico vs Ecuador
Mexico vs Ecuador — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across FIFA World Cup markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (best-of-market odds form a no-vig set — strong arb signal).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | h2h | 2.26 | Betfair | +2.72% | $5 | 45.5% |
About This Match
EVBets identified 1 positive-EV bet for Mexico vs Ecuador (FIFA World Cup on Wed, Jul 1, 01:00 UTC). The top opportunity is Mexico on the match winner market at undefined at odds 2.26, offering +2.72% expected value. EV is calculated using the no-vig (fair) probability derived from sharp bookmaker consensus.
