🏆 NRL · Jul 18, 2026 · 07:35 UTC
New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons
Value bets 0
New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across NRL markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (avg margin in this market: 7.21%).
New Zealand Warriors win
79.0%
Draw
2.7%
St George Illawarra Dragons win
18.3%
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
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NO VALUE BETS FOUND
No positive EV opportunities detected for New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons right now. Updated continuously across 94 bookmakers.
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