🏆 MMA · Aug 29, 2026 · 07:00 UTC
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong
Value bets 0
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across MMA markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (avg margin in this market: 4.61%).
Umar Nurmagomedov win
78.4%
Draw
2.9%
Song Yadong win
18.7%
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
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NO VALUE BETS FOUND
No positive EV opportunities detected for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong right now. Updated continuously across 94 bookmakers.
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