England vs New Zealand
England vs New Zealand — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across Test Matches markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (best-of-market odds form a no-vig set — strong arb signal).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | h2h | 8.00 | PointsBet (AU) | +13.53% | $5 | 14.2% |
| New Zealand | h2h | 2.62 | Ladbrokes ↗ | +0.46% | $1 | 38.3% |
About This Match
EVBets identified 2 positive-EV bets for England vs New Zealand (Test Matches on Thu, Jun 25, 10:00 UTC). The top opportunity is Draw on the match winner market at undefined at odds 8, offering +13.53% expected value. EV is calculated using the no-vig (fair) probability derived from sharp bookmaker consensus.
