Moreno Fendero vs Jonathan Gonzalez
Moreno Fendero vs Jonathan Gonzalez — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across Boxing markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (best-of-market odds form a no-vig set — strong arb signal).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Gonzalez | h2h | 9.50 | theScore Bet | +12.98% | $4 | 11.9% |
| Draw | h2h | 33.00 | 1xBet ↗ | +2.78% | $0 | 3.1% |
About This Match
The upcoming boxing match between Moreno Fendero and Jonathan Gonzalez on June 12, 2026, presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors.
Current odds stand at 9.5 for both the home and away fighters, with a draw also valued at 9.5. However, the standout value bet is Jonathan Gonzalez at 9.5, boasting an expected value (EV) of +12.98%.
This value bet is compelling due to Gonzalez's recent performance metrics, which suggest he has a favorable chance of winning against Fendero, making the odds particularly attractive.
For more insights, utilize the EVBets calculator to maximize your betting strategy and explore value bets for this match.
