Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across MLB markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (avg margin in this market: 1.17%).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | totals | 2.18 | 1xBet ↗ | +2.27% | $5 | 46.9% |
| Under 7.5 | totals | 1.91 | FanDuel | +1.40% | $4 | 53.1% |
About This Match
EVBets identified 2 positive-EV bets for Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels (MLB on Fri, Jul 3, 01:41 UTC). The top opportunity is Over 7.5 on the totals market at undefined at odds 2.18, offering +2.27% expected value. EV is calculated using the no-vig (fair) probability derived from sharp bookmaker consensus.
