Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies
Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across MLB markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (avg margin in this market: 0.83%).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 | totals | 2.15 | 1xBet ↗ | +3.65% | $8 | 48.2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | h2h | 2.04 | 1xBet ↗ | +2.01% | $5 | 50.0% |
About This Match
EVBets identified 2 positive-EV bets for Detroit Tigers vs Philadelphia Phillies (MLB on Sun, Jul 12, 17:41 UTC). The top opportunity is Over 7.5 on the totals market at undefined at odds 2.15, offering +3.65% expected value. EV is calculated using the no-vig (fair) probability derived from sharp bookmaker consensus.
