Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons
Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across AFL markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (best-of-market odds form a no-vig set — strong arb signal).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Demons | h2h | 3.00 | TAB | +3.62% | $5 | 34.5% |
About This Match
EVBets identified 1 positive-EV bet for Adelaide Crows vs Melbourne Demons (AFL on Sat, Jun 20, 03:15 UTC). The top opportunity is Melbourne Demons on the match winner market at undefined at odds 3, offering +3.62% expected value. EV is calculated using the no-vig (fair) probability derived from sharp bookmaker consensus.
