Player Props
Player props (proposition bets) are wagers on individual player performance metrics — like passing yards, rebounds, shots on goal — rather than on the game result.
Why Props Are Softer
Player props get far less sharp action than main lines. Books rely more on opening-line traders and statistical models. This makes them prone to mispricing, especially for less-followed games and lower-tier players. Sharp bettors find more inefficiencies here than on moneyline.
Building a Props Edge
1. Build (or use) a projection model for the stat. 2. Compare your projection to the over/under line. 3. Bet if the gap exceeds the vig + buffer. Models for usage rate, defensive matchup, and pace are the building blocks.
Common Prop Types
NBA: points, rebounds, assists, 3-pointers made. NFL: passing/rushing/receiving yards, TD scorer, longest reception. Soccer: shots on target, fouls, cards, goal scorer.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are player props +EV?
On average no — vig is often 8–15% (higher than moneyline). But individual mispricings are more common, so disciplined bettors with models can find consistent +EV.
Do bookmakers limit prop bettors?
Yes. Soft books quickly limit winners on player props. Sharp books and exchanges offer worse selection but no limits.
Apply this concept to live value bets.
Browse Value Bets →