Arbitrage Betting (Arbs)

Arbitrage betting (an "arb") is placing simultaneous bets on every possible outcome of an event across different bookmakers such that the total stake guarantees a small profit regardless of which side wins.

How an Arb Works

If Bookmaker A offers 2.10 on Team X and Bookmaker B offers 2.10 on Team Y in a two-way market, sum of implied probabilities is 1/2.10 + 1/2.10 = 95.2%. The 4.8% gap is your guaranteed margin minus the vig.

Arb % = 1 − (1/odds_A + 1/odds_B + ...)

Arbs vs Value Betting

Arbs use mathematical certainty (cover all sides) with a small fixed return — usually 1–4% per cycle. Value betting takes positive-EV on a single side, accepting variance but compounding faster long-term. Both require sharp pricing as the anchor.

Practical Risks

Soft bookmakers limit or close accounts that consistently hit promo arbs. Sharp books (Pinnacle, exchanges) rarely limit but offer lower margins. Always check the bet was settled correctly — a voided leg breaks the arb.

Frequently Asked Questions