Melbourne Demons vs Greater Western Sydney Giants
Melbourne Demons vs Greater Western Sydney Giants — Win Probability
Fair (no-vig) win probabilities derived from sharp-bookmaker consensus across AFL markets. Bookmaker margin removed using the no-vig method — these are the true implied chances of each outcome (avg margin in this market: 1.01%).
How is this win probability calculated?
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (vig/juice), typically 4-7%. To get the true probability of each outcome, we remove this margin proportionally across all outcomes — the no-vig method.
- Take implied probability from each outcome's odds:
1 / odds - Sum them (will exceed 100% due to bookmaker margin)
- Normalize each by the sum — result is fair probability
- Cross-check across multiple sharp books (Pinnacle, Betfair Ex) for consensus
When a single bookmaker offers odds higher than fair odds, the bet has positive EV. Learn more about no-vig probability · EV calculator
| Outcome | Market | Best Odds | Bookmaker | EV% | Kelly $1k | Implied P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Western Sydney Giants | h2h | 2.20 | Marathon Bet | +5.84% | $12 | 48.1% |
About This Match
EVBets identified 1 positive-EV bet for Melbourne Demons vs Greater Western Sydney Giants (AFL on Sun, May 31, 05:15 UTC). The top opportunity is Greater Western Sydney Giants on the match winner market at undefined at odds 2.2, offering +5.84% expected value. EV is calculated using the no-vig (fair) probability derived from sharp bookmaker consensus.
